Elections! — Obama Biden wins

November 5, 2008

I have no personal stake in 2008 presidential elections. However, its my first while in the US. I expected longer lines, but i guess thats more of a problem in the city, more dense and more people who didn’t vote early.

 

 

Students waiting for their turn

Students waiting for their turn

 I was told it was illegal to photograph voters while voting. So i had to wait for them to clear out to take other shots of the booths…

Regular boothI also got a picture of the new touch screen booths…

Touch Screen!

Very interesting. Obama won in the same day the elections were held. Man, we need computerized elections so bad…


Costly Property Rights?

October 20, 2008

Interesting economic history paper on the Philippines by Lakshmi Iyer of Harvard Business School.

It talks about how the US introduced property rights into the philippines tried to introduce a Public lands policy to encourage ownership. There reforms turned out to be expensive when completely subsidized, and too expensive for tenants to purchase these rights, so take-up was small. Its seems the lesson is that land reform works when the land is bought from the original owners on the cheap, and redistributed with as much subsidy as can be afforded, and that rights be protected even at the cost of being politically unpopular.

Seems to be ‘nigh impossible under a democratic government of a poor LDC.

Moreover, the paper had some preliminary evidence that land reform and agrarian productivity aren’t too tightly tied. Maybe another model for agricultural modernization is needed?


Links on Population Policy/Reproductive Health Bill

September 22, 2008

Here is the bill itself. There might be a more permanent link, but i couldnt find it.

From the above source, here is additional commentary against it.

I’m thinking about the one of the main arguments of the SPUC — the bill is dangerous because it introduces reproductive rights into Philippine law. A legal challenge would mean clarification from the courts, which might induce a move to legalize abortion.

Is this a legitimate argument? I’d like to see some case studies in other countries  that support the contention that the mere use of ‘reproductive rights’ will necessarily lead toward abortion. In a conversation w Prof M, he said (and i agree) that in countries where abortion is, it always follows contraception. But does it flow the other way? Does contraception always lead to abortion? I have my doubts.

More scientific testimony, by Emma Roxas, Society of Catholic Social Scientists. The science is interesting, and in a sense, has more evidence than the UP Econ document.

Regarding economic growth, it must be said that roxas doesn’t include much more recent work than Kuznets in 1966. I am not familiar with the UN document in 1992. Mankiw etal test the Solow growth model in 1994(?). Population growth rates is negative related to per capita income and growth rates. I’m not a growth scholar, but i think population and per-capita income/growth is a shut case. (I’ll ask my more knowledgeable peers tho).

She also mentions Lant pritchett’s work. This is fascinating to me. Basicaly, pritchett says that desired fertility is a very good preditor for actual fertility. Also, unwanted children and family planning efforts don’t do much to actual fertility rates.

This is supposedly an argument that large families comes from the desire/demand for large families, so if the idea is that people have an unmet need for contraceptive is false. [the paper is gated, but available in JSTOR]

But it basically means that contraceptives have no effect on unwanted births means that family planning programs are ineffective in achieving their goals, assuming the goal is to lower unwanted pregnancies alone.

I actually find this a bit persuasive — the only class i took that discussed demographic issues was a class on the industrial revolution. Total fertility rates declined during the industrial revolution in london to modern levels, without any formal program.

If family planning fails to do so, then i find the opposition to it strange.

She then goes to the medical and philosophical arguments. Her medical position has no evidence, and i wish she had a few studies to follow up on. She says contraceptives have side effects. Studies? Also, all drugs and interventions have side-effects. What is important is to gauge the likelihood of such problems. If is behind say, 1000 cases of cancer, this is still tiny compared to the millions of people using the drug. (We can calculate via Baye’s Theorem what the probabilty of cancer conditional on using contraceptives if we had other probabilities).

Her philosophical arguments suffer also. Consider this excerpt:

An observation of the nature of man, will show that man is not the “owner” of his own life.  Observe that at one point, he does not exist; then at another point, he begins to exist. Then, at some later point in his life, he ceases to exist.  Note that in the points when he begins to exist and ceases to exist, man does not exercise any volition or willing whatsoever.  He enters this world without him having a say on it and he leaves this world, without him willing it.

These truths point to one thing only.  That man does not have a say so in the beginning and ebbing of his own life.  Life is clearly not a province he can decide upon.  He can always try to extend his life by medical help or seek the bowels of the earth to prolong his stay on it.  But all of these grand efforts are of naught because his life is not really up to him.  He has to go, when he has to go, as dictated  by the Giver and Creator of life itself, and this can never be postponed.

While its true we cant determine whether we are born (whether we die is another matter), that doesn’t have anything to do with contraception? (assuming that the egg and sperm are not yet people)

She also mentions the church’s argument that sex is for procreation:

Now,  when man decides that he only wants the enjoyment of the marital act but not the consequences thereof, he is committing a grave wrong because the marital act was designed purposely by the Creator for the begetting of children.  Sexual intercourse, even with one’s legitimate spouse is a grave moral wrong if it is not open to life.

I need not mention the criticisms against this position, but the basic outline is that moral law/natural can be interpreted in several ways.

She ends with a not-so-subtle put down to the other side:

In the course of history, many men and women transgressed the moral norms governing the exercise of the marital act. They cannot quietly dispel the qualms of conscience that they have experienced in their transgression, so they decided to make their own rules to justify their failings.  They concocted ideas like “sexual liberation”,  “freedom to choose what they want to do with their bodies”, “reproductive health”, “gender equality”, etc.  all of which simply mean that they do not want to toe the line of Natural Law in the matter of their sexuality.  Simply put, it is actually putting one over the Creator in a matter that only He has absolute authority over – and this is LIFE.

Interesting take, although obviously this is an interpretation that choice people will disagree with.


CBCP on population policy

September 4, 2008

Edit!

This is the most cogent explanation i’ve heard from the church about their position. I am sympathetic to their view, but i have a few questions for the good bishop [i don't know this guy's name]:

Read the rest of this entry »


Bugador

September 3, 2008

Interesting docu from Howie Severino. Check it out for how reform is carried out … More power to Gov!


Kidney Donor Pools

April 14, 2008

An interesting article in abs-cbn online news on the doctor’s reaction to new DOH kidney donation rules. This is my comment:

the article on the kidney donation does not clearly lay out how the kidney specialists plan will help. The problem is that the pool of potential donors is tainted by donors who lie to be eligible for transplantation. but the kidney specialists’ plan is to restrict transplants (generally? or to foreigners– this too is unclear). Setting aside the issue of non-compliance by hospitals (mentioned in the article), how will a successful restriction

a)help the people who need kidneys,

b) help improve the quality of the donor pool?

Update: I found this nice link on kidney sales in Iran. Regarding poor donor pool, its important to align incentives. From the study:

If the long-term outcomes of organ vendors are formally included as a moral and financial responsibility of the vending system, then market forces will minimize costs by selecting a vendor population with the lowest risk…

Agreed. Make the system pay for post op care, and buyers will be more careful about who the ‘vendors’ are. This will restrict the number of operations to those foreigners that can afford it (kinda like what the DOH proposal is all about anyways), but it will go a long way towards solving the moral hazard in this market.


Confused by CBCP

April 14, 2008

Whats up with CBCP? In a news bit from MSN i hear:

Roman Catholic bishops in the Philippines warned President Gloria Arroyo on Monday against granting a pardon to nine military officers convicted of mounting a failed coup five years ago.

The defence establishment on Sunday urged Arroyo to grant presidential clemency to the nine junior officers, who received heavy jail terms earlier this month after they pleaded guilty and apologised to the Filipino people.

“The government will not win any brownie points here because the public is not in favour of it,” said Rodolfo Diamante, executive secretary of the Catholic Bishops Conference’s episcopal commission on prison pastoral care.

So the government shouldn’t pardon soldiers because ‘the public isn’t in favour of it’? I’m confused because i didn’t know the church based moral decisions on its popularity (or lack thereof). Shouldn’t forgiveness be based on fundamental moral reasons, especially if your name is the Catholic Church? Who cares about brownie points?

What ever happened to consistency?

For example, I can understand how and why the church would be against contraception — because its against it on principle. Whether or not people are in favor is a separate matter (important, but in theory separate). Now the church is playing the popularity card, which tells me that the CBCP uses arguments based on whether it supports some kind of agenda (whatever that agenda is, which includes a hardline stance against coup plotters and women)


Disapproval and Approval

March 24, 2008

Pulse Asia reports that PGMA has a 51% disapproval rate and a 23% approval rate. this gives us a net approval of -28%.

President GW Bush has similar or worse numbers. This site has them some of the latest ones.

My question is, given that PGMA’s numbers are no worse than President Bush’s, why is it the call to impeachment and open revolution so much stronger than in the US? I’m curious as to President Estrada’s polling numbers in the run-up to EDSA II. I would expect similar numbers as with PGMA’s.

The Phlippines is just so much more willing to play the revolution card, and even the impeachment card than the US is.

Is this a symptom that there is something wrong with Philippine (presidential government) institutions? I am nursing the view that this is evidence that the presidential system isn’t working in the philippines. Shouldn’t impeachment be a weapon of last resort in the presidential system; never to be used lightly? And we’re not even talking about revolution. I’m not saying this is an argument for another system. All i’m saying is the the institution of the presidency isn’t how it ought to be.

Meanwhile in the US, the movement to impeach of George W Bush died without even a whimper. Here is a wiki entry about it.


Journalists in the Line of Fire III

January 26, 2008

DJB has an mp3 file of Cheche Lazaro interviewing Ellen Tordesillas and Maria Rezza. Tough question by cheche, but no followup.

Specifically, Cheche asked: …. (PNP general?) Razon said there was an order to clear out the area to protect people in the Peninsula hotel, and that the journalists were not following a ligitimate order…. Ellen replied that it was not a legit order because of the free press provision. Later Maria said, if you ask journalists there, there was NO order given.

Setting aside legitimacy, was there in fact an order? I wanted Maria to answer the hypothetical: had there been an order, would it be correct for media to file out? A hypothetical to lawyers: If there had been order, would it be correct to call what the journalists did as obstruction (and charge them with such)?

If there was no order, then i side with maria. As she tells it,  journalists weren’t charged — why not? This is important. The fact that they weren’t charged makes the arrest seem like harrassment which is unconscionable. The DOJ should do a better job explaining the protocol of police action during these situations.


This is Good News?

January 24, 2008

If it is, we’re in trouble! :)