Equivalent Variation in OFWs

In a very interesting study by the nice folks at Scalabrini Migration Center….

Median Monthly salary required to make Migrants Stay in the country lies in 20,000 to 29,999 thousand range.

The respondents of the survey attendees of the POEA’s predeparture orientation seminar. 83% female and half are single; median is 30 to 34 years old; 60% from Luzon and almost half have college degrees (27% have HS or less). The survey was done in 2004.

Cool Photography

See it here. In particular, Jan von Holleben’s photos are refreshing.

The Embryo as a Person

Robert George, a member of the President’s Bioethics Council, and Christopher Tollefson, wrote a book called “Embryo: A Defense of Human Life”. Will Saletan reviews it for NYTimes here, while the author’s respond here.The authors’ position on the embryo echo my own stance against abortion. However, this makes embryonic stem cell research morally wrong; hell it makes procedures that create spare embryo’s, as in during human-aided reproduction techniques wrong too.

Newton Rootfinding

Chapter 3 of ACEF: Rootfinding algorithmOne of the simplest rootfinding techniques is the Newton-Raphson Method. Ingredients:

1. Differentiable Function [necessary]
2.  A function with a unique root [so we don't have to worry about a good starting value]
3. A computer [only necessary if you don't want to waste your time]

The idea is to calculate the first derivative or Jacobian [matrix]. Start somewhere, hopefully close to the root. Use the first guess to come up with a second guess via the first derivative and the function value. Let be specific. Consider x^3-2 below:From the graph, we can see the answer is about 1.25. Take a starting guess, say 1. At x=1, two things are true:

1. f(x)<0
2. f’(x)>0

(1) and (2) together tells you to increase x to find that special x to make f(x)=0. Do this again and again till you get x*.Matlab output (t)       f(x(t-1))1.3333   -1.00001.2639    0.37041.2599    0.01901.2599For the first guess of x=1, we get f(x)=-1. The second guess tell you to go higher by the amount -f(x)/f’(x). This takes us to 1.333 — too high, because f(x)>0. The method tells you to go down by -f(x)/f’(x). We get to f(x)>0… etc. Until we settle down to 1.2599.

Economic Growth and TV

There is a TV show on CBS called “Jericho”, a post apocalyptic fantasy where some 2o plus large US cities are obliterated by Nuclear Bombs. It takes place in the small US town of Jericho, Kansas and features characters with their own checkered histories.

As one can imagine, life completely changes for everyone thanks to this event.  In the story, the USA ceases to exist and the federal government collapses. The economics of the situation is particularly interesting. You can see that social trust drops to zero, mutually beneficial trades are not made, and promises are broken all the time. The town itself is connected to an agricultural supply chain, where the city imports finished good and exports raw materials (specifically, they export corn, beans and salt because the town has a salt mine). The apocalypse cuts the supply chain and they lose most of their processed food within the first 5 days.  We can see how trade makes cities vulnerable to supply shocks. The timing of the bombs is particulary bad as it comes in fall where they can’t ramp up agricultural production to smooth consumption. Maybe there really is something to being agriculturally self-sufficient.

Thats just the tip of the iceberg. There are many things a developed country takes for granted and lots pressures become real, urgent problems (i.e. migration).

This reminds me of the simple growth models in economics. When i first learned it, i remember thinking to myself that this  was very cool.  In the textbook, it asked, what happens when K gets cut in half in the Solow growth model. The key to Solow is the production function. When K is cut in half, the return to capital jumps up and the society has an incentive to save and invest (cut down on consumption). Over time, the K accumulates (net investment) at a faster clip than worker growth until K and L growth at the same rate (or effective worker growth rate, if we think there is labor augmented technological growth).

Jericho tells us that this simple prediction can’t be necessarily true. Institutions, technology and well-functioning markets are hidden behind the simplification of an aggregate production function. Luckily in Jericho, American institutions are reasonably robust — by the second season, the federal government is starting to reassert itself.

Irritated

I’m irritated that a number of papers have been written about Philippine migrant workers. Maybe there is something left to be written. Anything. One interesting thing i’ve learned today: Regional rainfall can be an instrument for for region-level income. The R2 is horrible, but the F-test is good.

Why MSKM2 has floundered

There are reports that MSKM2’s ratings aren’t high to impress the big bosses. To figure this out completely, you need to know what its up against. It also didn’t help that it started competing a new, improved ‘Marimar’. But there’s more to it.

I think MSKM2 has lost its way narratively speaking. First, there are so many characters now, thats its incredibly confusing. The spotlight is being shared by the 2 original couples to some of the older couples, the parents. At the same time, the issues surrounding the two original couples have been completely resolved. To put it another way, the 2 couples are (gasp!) boring.

Somewhat less important, is its insistence on using magic/occult. Since the show didn’t start with magic/spirituality as a part of the ‘reality’ of the show, its using it seems to be a narrative crutch. Second is, whats with the strange accents on the show? Christopher de leon is doing an alec baldwin? And Chin-chin? Whats up with that? [Also, chin-chin looks young enough to give the young couple a run for their money...]

It may be too late to change things. But what they need to do is return to the spirit of MSKM. MSKM is about:

1. young love
2. against all odds, you and me against the world- love
3. lying about who you are to fit in to an image that the other would find acceptable

When they married off Bea and John Lloyd, the writers/producers painted themselves into a corner, while hoping that Angelica and Rosanna might be the new center of the plot. No dice.

Brain Gain?

This is from Docquier and Rappaport (World Bank Policy Paper in 2004), who get it from Beine et al (2003). The data above is from 1999.

1) The Philippines is on the wrong side of this curve. why?

2) What is with Indonesia, China, Pakistan; or even more to the point, Guatemala and Honduras? In contrast to the latter two, we have Dominican Republic and Nicaragua. Why? South Korea was a surprise.

3) It seems then that the positive effects of ‘brain drain’ is in fact true, and its true for some large developing countries with relatively small emigration rates.