Land Reform and Taxation = Econ 101

November 28, 2007

In my undergraduate university, the first course in economics was a course that everyone had to take. It was your typical first course in econ, and we used the venerable Samuelson textbook.  I was shocked at the course title: land reform and taxation. Sure, land reform and taxation were discussed, but it was by no means the only things we discussed. I had long wondered why the course was so misnamed, and now an  article by historian ambeth ocampo reveals the answer: 

 In the past half-century, other compulsory courses have been revisited, reviewed and, as in the case of Spanish, dropped or made an elective or course of the student’s choice. In the collegiate level, therefore, only the following courses remain required and compulsory by law: Land Reform and Taxation, National Service (formerly the ROTC), and the Rizal course. 

 


Focus

November 26, 2007

In writing this paper, i need to focus on a question. The literature is wide, interesting, yet frustatingly rambling. Thats understandable. It is the task of the writer to take all of these elements and tell a cohesive story.

There is one a central fact vital in the history of economic growth:From the beginning of recorded history until the 18th century, output per person in countries in the world [specifically england, but this can be generalized] is negatively related to population. Specifically, this rapid growth appears to start around 1760, but explodes around 1860.

Higher incomes in this period is also associated with the rise of manufacturing and the decline of agriculture in the economy (share of output). This is why this has been called the Industrial Revolution.

Modern Growth theory says that Investment in the stock of production knowledge is the key to ever increasing incomes. The big question is: why did such investment not happen before; or if it did, why did it fail to create increasing incomes we have witnessed for almost 200 years.

This question is one of the most important questions in economics. Tantalizingly, it remains a mystery.

The phrase ‘production knowledge’ is key here — how have societies been able to marshall labor power in ever more productive ways?

This is not the same question that many other people pursue. Other people have asked about the question of incentives: since incentives matter, it is imperative to know how this knowledge generation is incentivized. And if it is knowledge that cannot be completely appropriated, then there must be some sort of externality — what is the nature of this externality?

Out of the first concern come the arguments for intellectual property and innovation, out of the second derive some of the literature on endogenous growth. Needless to say, elements from both concerns might also be operating simultaneously.

My next concern is the nature of one of the major characters in the drama of modern growth: firms. Old treatment of the theory of the firm talk about a black box of despotism in a sea of the free market. [note: whose quote is this? ] A firm is a Cost Function with an assumed shape. A firm is a faceless technology, whose only purpose is to maximize profit. Let this firm interact with other firms, under different conditions – and you get results on prices and outputs in an economy. Larger questions of what the definitions of market and industry are largely ignored. Within an industry, firm dynamics are simple: entry occurs until profits are driven to zero.

One of the major problems of this old literature is that ‘between industry’ dynamics are also ignored. Industries exist by assumption. Industries are different from each other in certain, parameterized ways: i.e. some industries have higher fixed costs than others, some are more regulated, etc. New industries are assumed to be born; they don’t rise endogenously. Much of this stems from the lack of a good definition for industry/market. The absence of a definition implies an inability to model it.

Newer versions of the theory talk about the definition of a firm. This is again a large and voluminous literature, that showcases the firm as a contractual arrangement, from Williamson. this highlights the dangers of opportunism in long-run relationships, and that long-run contracts — firms — are written to circumvent them. A related view of the firm says that a firm is an incomplete contract. The incompleteness of it gives one party the power to influence how resources are allocated and effort incentivized.

There is a less popular approach to defining a firm that neoclassical theory has neglected — the entrepreneur. Again, problems of definitions plague the literature, and the absence of a groundbreaking theoretical technique has stymied its popular use. [note to self: this is kinda similar to one of my conclusions!]

Moving forward, the critical questions to be asked are: what is an entrepreneur? (i.e. definitions by Schumpeter, Kirzner, Baumol, et al.) and how does this agent bring about sustained growth in productive knowledge? In addition, the entrepreneur concept must highlight the dynamics and transitions that characterize economies everywhere. Specifically, a theory of entrepreneurship must be consistent with the stylized fact on growth mentioned at the start.

Another way of stating things is: how do capitalist societies come to be? What are the forces that underlie such dramatic changes in an economies structure? What role do entrepreneurs/firms play in the propagation and the creation of these forces?


Amateur Topology

November 23, 2007

I like this video — i’ve learned (a little) topology! [thanks for the correction! -- i hadn't noticed]


Politician

November 21, 2007

[As a literary exercise, i decided to pen an actual script. This is a drama; opening sequence. To be honest, i don't know what a professional script looks like, so i'll have to change the format later on]

*Start Scene*

[Outside a restaurant in a major city. A man is standing outside, clutching an envelope. Camera pans up to his face, twisted in frustrated anticipation]

Narr: There is a point in your life when a decision must be made. Great minds, minds greater than mine, call this a ‘crossroads’. The poet Robert Frost suggested that in times like these, one ought to take the road less travelled. So here i am.

Scene: A car pulls up. A black, luxury sedan. A barong tagalog wearing driver pops out and waits. Out of the restaurant comes a sophisticated, beautiful woman. She confidently strides to her car and the driver opens the rear door.

Jay: Wait. [jay starts to run]

Sarah: [pauses slightly to see who it is, and continues on her way to the car]. I don’t have time for whatever this is Jay.

Read the rest of this entry »


Change

November 21, 2007

“Change” by Tracy Chapman

If you knew that you would die today,
Saw the face of God and love,
Would you change?
Would you change?

If you knew that love can break your heart
When you’re down so low you cannot fall
Would you change?
Would you change?

How bad, how good does it need to get?
How many losses? How much regret?
What chain reaction would cause an effect?
Makes you turn around,
Makes you try to explain,
Makes you forgive and forget,
Makes you change?
Makes you change?

If you knew that you would be alone,
Knowing right, being wrong,
Would you change?
Would you change?

If you knew that you would find a truth
That brings up pain that can’t be soothed
Would you change?
Would you change?

How bad, how good does it need to get?
How many losses? How much regret?
What chain reaction would cause an effect?
Makes you turn around,
Makes you try to explain,
Makes you forgive and forget,
Makes you change?
Makes you change?

Are you so upright you can’t be bent?
If it comes to blows are you so sure you won’t be crawling?
If not for the good, why risk falling?
Why risk falling?

If everything you think you know,
Makes your life unbearable,
Would you change?
Would you change?

If you’d broken every rule and vow,
And hard times come to bring you down,
Would you change?
Would you change?

If you knew that you would die today,
If you saw the face of God and love,
Would you change?
Would you change?
Would you change?
Would you change?

If you saw the face of God and love
If you saw the face of God and love
Would you change?
Would you change?


Veterano

November 19, 2007

I saw an interesting documentary today about the state of the filipino WWII veterans. They are still waiting for recognition as WWII vets. More information can be found here.

Its an unfortunate situation to be sure. As a young person, I of course want our elders to spend their lives in relative comfort, and i want veterans to be recognized for their courage.

But i was a bit uncomfortable, in a room with young filipino americans and 70 year olds who want to be recognized as US veterans. I was uncomfortable because i couldn’t banish this thought — why does being a considered a US veteran (or being recognized by America) so important?

The short of it is that these men responded to a call to arms by then US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt. At the time, the Philippines was still a territory of the US, and a call from the president to serve for the US was perceived as a call to defend america, not the Philippines. Normally, that would make the these veterans US WWII veterans, but the american president retroactively changed the filipinos designation to non-active servicemen. Until now, these veterans are still fighting to be recognized as such, and receive benefits that are due them.

So there they were, these old men. They have been fighting for this for a long time, and they know they don’t have much left. All they want is to be recognized, and all i want is for these guys to get what they want.

But i still can’t banish this little nagging thought. Why is it that its so important to be a US veteran? I suppose i ought to be more direct — isn’t it enough to be a Filipino veteran? I concede that, at the time, the Philippines was an american territory. But i do believe that the country was also well on its way to independence. Its true that FDR wanted them to fight for the americans, but why didn’t they fight the japanese because of the desire for independence?

At some point in a man’s life, he has to figure out where his allegiance lies. Its a secret moment, known only to him. At some point in thee men’s lives, they decided they wanted to fight for america, not the promise of a free Philippines. I don’t begrudge them this — it was after all ‘America’, with all of its allure and charm. The Philippines was but an idea; a rather dubious one at the time.

Again, i look at these men, and the decision they made to be an american. This is a decision they make day in and day out, with the same conviction they had when, as young men, they decided to fight for america. On the one hand i’m glad that they are here — they are getting medical attention and some money. Back home, who knows what kind of attention they would get? But a small part of me wishes that they (or heck, someone) would want to be a Filipino with as much zeal and longing. I’ve never met anyone who wanted to be ‘anything’, much less a filipino as much as these men. I don’t want to be ‘anything’ (a Filipino included) as much as these men.  I am humbled.

I think a little bit of that desire would go a long way to making the Philippines a better place. And i think its the loyalty and dedication of men like these that make america special.


Entrepreneurship, Post I

November 19, 2007

I’m writing on entrepreneurship, and its my first, so this will be incredibly confusing and disjointed. To jog my brain, i’ll start with Baumol’s ideas.

In his JPE paper, Baumol assumes that the supply of entrepreneurship varies across societies but it is the allocation of entrepreneurial talent is a key driver of differences in growth rates. Talent can be allocated in either productive enterprises or rent-seeking or organized crime. The allocation in any society depends on the relative pay-offs of either activity.
When the government can affect the pay-offs between either activity, then it can also influence growth. Furthermore, it is assumed that government can affect relative returns, but not the supply of entrepreneurship.

He has three different propositions on entrepreneurship over time. The first is that pay-offs to entrepreneurship changes dramatically from one time to another. The second is that these changes correspond to the ‘rules of the game’. And last, the alllocation of entrepreneurial talent has effects on the innovativeness of the economy and the dissemination of that innovation. He elaborates on these propositions by discussing several germane historical episodes.

To cite one, he begins with the Roman period. He describes this period as one of intense innovative activity, but its entrepreneurs were sidelined with non-productive goals. They were interested in wealth and prosperity, but were not interested in commerce or industry. The rich had three acceptable sources of wealth: land holdings, usury, and political payments. Industry was looked down on, as the province for freedmen (former slaves). There was also a wide gulf between science and technology.

He gets into trouble when he tries to link policy to entrepreneurial allocation. He doesn’t really have proof that policy can affect relative pay-offs. He realizes that alot might depend on preferences or culture, so in the final section of his paper, he assumes that every entrepreneur in history has the same goals to save the proposition that policy might matter to redirect entrepreneurial attention.

The restriction on the royal grant of monopolies (in 1624) was cited as the main policy change in england to ignite the industrial revolution in the 18th century. Yet, he continues that maybe it is the attitudes of the english towards commerce that was changing. Commerce was becoming more acceptable as more sons of english lords had to resort to commerce and industry because of primogeniture — the land goes only to the eldest son. So, more and more rich people had to be business people, so it became acceptable, even respectable.

I also have been reading “Booty Capitalism” by Paul Hutchcroft. He has the same theme as Baumol. Focusing on the development of the filipino banking sector, he says that filipino oligarchs were pre-occupied with rent-seeking instead of opening new markets and innovation.

I am sympathetic to these claims. But i have a problem with the growth story. If we say that productive entrepreneurship and growth go hand in glove, then aren’t we being truistic? Isn’t it saying that industrialization is heralded by industrialists? This isn’t a theory of the history of growth or development. It is unclear how or why entrepreneurs are engaged in productive or unproductive activity, not the least is it clear how or why government can affect it.

Baumol leaves me with one last thing to think about — the pursuit of power and standing in society. This preference is unlikely to change over time and its manifestation over time changes, depending on relative conditions. Further, the pursuit of power itself can generate changes in the rules of the game, which influences how people pursue power, which influences institutions, which changes relative returns, etc… It seems very general equilibrium. Can the pursuit of power explain the waves of entrepreneurship and its allocation over activities?


Who owns Price information?

November 18, 2007

According to big retailers, they do. This shows that the internet (or information, more generally) hasn’t tamed price dispersion.


Lhuillier on Project Runway

November 17, 2007

I was watching Project Runway’s new season on Bravo, when i noticed the name of the guest judge – Monique Lhuillier. Yup, that Lhuillier. From her website, she’s very accomplished bridal clothing designer. Her credits include Brittney Spear’s wedding dress (in her wedding with KFed). My question is, does she identify herself as a ‘filipino’ designer? I hope so.


Virtues of Bad Times

November 17, 2007

A very interesting paper “Virtues of Bad Times Revisited” was presented by its author, Min Ouyang, this week in our Macro-Intl seminar.

Its about recessions and whether they are good or bad in terms of productivity. An old idea, credited to Schumpeter, says that recessions are good because they free resources to more productive uses. This is a ‘cleansing’ effect of recessions, sort of how you get more productive when all the old crap laying around your room gets ushered to the nearest recycling bin.

The problem is that the cleansing story doesn’t really agree with the data. First, she cites that those firms that ‘die’ during a downturn aren’t necesarily the least productive firms. Second, assume that firms learn to be more productive as time goes by. If so, then the following fact would mean that the dynamic effects of recessions are hurtful to productivity — the firms that die during recessions are young firms. These firms don’t have a chance to learn what their true productivity. This is what she calls a ’scarring’ effect.

The paper continues to model the above phenomenon, and the exact details are interesting.

But i have a problem with this paper. Firm productivity, and the learning of one’s intrinsic ability, comes from somewhere. In her paper, she briefly mentions three sources of uncertainty regarding intrinsic productivity: unobserved managerial skill, unknown demand for product, unpredictable profitability of certain locations. But in a recession, while firms may die, these sources of productivity do not.

So when the recession ends, these same factors are still in play, so scarring need not happen. To be specific, lets say its managerial talent that is important. Then, when a recession hits, its still possible for this talent to bloom elsewhere (another industry), and so there is no loss — its merely re-allocated.

To retain scarring, you have to assume idiosyncratic productivity that is industry and time dependent. So, lets say I am a manager for a software firm gets laid off because my firm ‘dies’ in the recession of ‘07. I get another job, in another industry, or — gasp! — get into Economics Grad School. I earn some human capital in my new industry, but my inate talents in software engineering never get used again because my built abilities aren’t transferable to software engineering. Depending on your viewpoint on human capital, these are either natural assumptions or onerous.